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Context of 'June 22, 2009: Stocks Fall, Commodities Drop in US, Europe as World Bank Revises Previous Forecast, Predicts a Deeper Recession'

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The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) predicts “a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyzes the major central banks.” RBS credit strategist Bob Janjuah says, “A very nasty period is soon to be upon us—be prepared.” Bolstering Janjuah’s dire predictions, the RBS bank research team warns that the Wall Street equities index, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as “all the chickens come home to roost” from what the Daily Telegraph describes as “the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets. Such a slide on world [markets] would amount to one of the worst bear markets over the last century.” Janjuah also warned of the credit crisis in 2007. RBS predicts that Wall Street would rally a little in early July before quickly fizzling out. “Globalization was always going to risk putting G7 bankers into a dangerous corner at some point. We have got to that point,” Janjuah says. RBS debt market chief Kit Jukes says Europe will not be immune from the problems: “Economic weakness is spreading and the latest data on consumer demand and confidence are dire.” [Daily Telegraph, 6/19/2008]

Entity Tags: Bob Janjuah, Royal Bank of Scotland, Kit Jukes

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

NYU Economics Professor Nouriel Roubini tells Bloomberg News that, following the $350 billion injection by the Bush Administration, President Barack Obama will have to use as much as $1 trillion of taxpayer funds to shore up capitalization of the banking sector. “The problems of Citi, Bank of America and others suggest the system is bankrupt,” Roubini said. “In Europe, it’s the same thing.” Roubini also predicts that oil prices will continue to trade between $30 to $40 a barrel all year. Regarding commodities, Roubini said, “I see commodities falling overall another 15-20%. This outlook for commodity prices is beneficial for oil importers, it’s going to imply that economic recovery might occur faster, but from the point of view of oil exporters, this will be very negative.” [Street Insider.com, 1/20/2009; Bloomberg, 1/20/2009]

Entity Tags: Barack Obama, Citibank, Nouriel Roubini, Bank of America

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

New York University economist Nouriel “Dr. Doom” Roubini and Western Europe Finance and Banking analyst Elisa Parisi-Capone of RGE Monitor release new estimates for expected loan losses and writedowns on US originated securitizations:
bullet Loan losses on a total of $12.37 trillion unsecuritized loans are expected to reach $1.6 trillion. Of these, US banks and brokers are expected to incur $1.1 trillion.
bullet Mark-to-market writedowns based on derivatives prices and cash bond indices on a further $10.84 trillion in securities reached $1.92 trillion. According to flow-of-funds data, about 40% of these securities (and losses) are foreign-held. US banks and broker dealers are assumed to incur a share of 30-35%, or $600-700 billion in securities writedowns.
bullet US-originated assets’ total loan losses and securities writedowns are expected to reach about $3.6 trillion. The US banking sector is exposed to half of this figure, or about $1.8 trillion (i.e. $1.1 trillion loan losses + $700bn writedowns).
bullet As of the third quarter of 2008, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation-insured banks’ capitalization is $1.3 trillion; as of the same period, investment banks had $110bn in equity capital. Roubini and Parisi-Capone say that past recapitalization through the first release of the TARP funds for $230bn, and private capital of $200bn leaves the US banking system very nearly insolvent, should loss estimates materialize.
bullet In order to restore safe lending, additional private and/or public capital of approximately $1 to 1.4 trillion is needed, thus calling for a comprehensive solution along the lines of a “bad bank” proposed by policymakers, or an outright restructuring through a new resolution trust corporation (RTC).
bullet In September 2008, Roubini proposed a solution for the banking crisis that also addresses the root causes of the financial turmoil in the housing and the household sectors. The HOME (Home Owners’ Mortgage Enterprise) program combines an RTC to deal with toxic assets, a homeowners loan corporation to reduce homeowners’ debt, and a reconstruction finance corporation to recapitalize viable banks.
They concluded that total financial system losses will likely hit $3.6 trillion, half of which, according to Roubini, “will be borne by US firms,” and that the losses will overwhelm the US financial system which, in the third quarter of 2008, had a capitalization of $1.3 trillion in commercial banks and $110 billion in investment banks. [Bloomberg, 1/20/2009; AFP Reporter, 1/22/2009] Since September 7, 2006, Dr. Roubini, an economics professor at New York University, has been known as “Dr. Doom” after telling an audience of economists at the International Monetary Fund that an economic crisis was brewing in the coming months and years. He warned that the United States was likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence and, ultimately, a deep recession, and laid out a bleak sequence of events: homeowners defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system shuddering to a halt. These developments, he said, could cripple or destroy hedge funds, investment banks and other major financial institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. [New York Times Magazine, 8/15/2008]

Entity Tags: Nouriel Roubini, Elisa Parisi-Capone, RGE Monitor

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

“The worst economic turmoil since the Great Depression is not a natural phenomenon but a man-made disaster in which we all played a part,” says Guardian City editor Julia Finch, who lists individuals who led the world into its current economic crisis (see June 2008). These individuals include:
bullet Alan Greenspan, US Federal Reserve chairman, 1987-2006: “[B]lamed for allowing the housing bubble to develop as a result of his low interest rates and lack of regulation in mortgage lending. Backed sub-prime lending; urged homebuyers to swap fixed-rate mortgages for variable rate deals, leaving borrowers unable to pay when interest rates rose. Defended the booming derivatives business, which barely existed when he took over the Fed, but which mushroomed from $100tn in 2002 to more than $500tn five years later.”
bullet Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England: “His ambition was that monetary policy decision-making should become ‘boring.’”
bullet Bill Clinton, former US president: “Beefed up the 1977 Community Reinvestment Act to force mortgage lenders to relax their rules to allow more socially disadvantaged borrowers to qualify for home loans. Repealed the 1999 Glass-Steagall Act, prompting the era of the superbank; the year before the repeal, sub-prime loans were just 5 percent of all mortgage lending. By the time the credit crunch blew up it was approaching 30 percent.” [Guardian, 1/26/2009]

Entity Tags: Mervyn King, William Jefferson (“Bill”) Clinton, Alan Greenspan, The Guardian, Julia Finch

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

Citigroup logo.Citigroup logo. [Source: Citigroup]The latest government bailout gives Citigroup bond holders excellent terms and doesn’t provide the bank with new money. Instead, Citigroup cut expenses with the elimination of preferred stock dividends, and also converted shares into common equity at an above-market-value of $3.25, positioning itself to take the first hit if it encounters additional losses. Analysts are predicting that the company’s losses will continue to increase. Since the beginning of 2009, Citigroup’s stock has fallen 78 percent. “Debt holders could eventually be required to participate in further government-led restructuring actions,” Standard and Poor’s says. [Bloomberg, 3/2/2009] Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit tells investors that increasing the bank’s “tangible” common equity from $29.7 billion to as much as $81 billion should “take confidence issues off the table,” about the bank’s loss absorption ability. The bank lost $27.7 billion in 2008, and is predicted to lose $1.24 billion during the first six months of 2009. “There’s no difference here,” says Christopher Whalen, co-founder of Institutional Risk Analytics, a Torrance, California risk-advisory firm. “It won’t fix revenue, and you’re still going to see loss rates.” Whalen says that the government’s efforts are mainly protecting other financial institutions and foreign goverments that are Citigroup bonds holders. “The taxpayer is funding the operating loss and protecting the bondholders,” Whalen notes. “The subsidy for the banks will become one of the biggest lines in Washington’s budget.”
Government Should Organize Citigroup, AIG Bondholders - Whalen also says it would be better if the government organized Citigroup and insurer American International Group Inc. bondholders, since the insurer received a $150 billion US bailout, and also made a deal with the government to convert some of its debt to equity. US government investment fell by more than 50 percent, and the government plans to convert up to $25 billion of its preferred stock to common shares, gaining a 36 percent stake in the bank. At Friday’s closing price of $1.50, government investment is worth approximately $11.5 billion. The bank itself has a stock market value of $8.2 billion as of market closing on February 27.
Analyst: Investors Should Avoid Citigroup Shares - Richard Ramsden, head of a group of analysts at Goldman Sachs Group, recommends that investors avoid investing in Citigroup shares: “It is unclear whether this is the last round of capital restructuring, which means that existing equity may be further diluted in the future.” The bank’s move to convert preferred shares to common equity led Moody’s Investors Service to adjust its senior debt rating for the bank from A3 to A2. Standard and Poor’s also changed its outlook on the bank’s debt from negative to stable. “Citi will face a tough credit cycle in the next two years, which will likely result in weak and volatile earnings,” S&P analyst Scott Sprinzen says. “We cannot rule out the possibility that further government support may prove necessary.” With the first two Citigroup rescue bailouts, the US Treasury bought $45 billion of preferred stock, and the Federal Reserve and FDIC guaranteed the bank against all but $29 billion of losses on a $301 billion portfolio of assets. With the third bailout, the Treasury, the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, and other preferred stockholders, agreed to take common stock at $3.25 a share, giving up dividends. The chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, Charles Rangel (D-NY), says: “The administration and the past administration have tried so many different ways that we can only hope and pray that this time they get it right. It seems like with the banks it is a never-ending thing.” [Bloomberg, 2/28/2009]
Third US Rescue Forces Citigroup Board Changes - The Obama administration demonstrated its willingness to force changes on executives at top banks that receive taxpayer-funded rescue packages by pressing Citigroup to reorganize its 15-member board with new, more independent members. The move sends a message to Wall Street that there are consequences when taxpayer dollars are used to save them. “The government is the new boss, and the new executive committee is no longer on Park Avenue,” says Michael Holland who, as chairman and founder of New York’s Holland & Co., manages nearly $4 billion in investments. [Bloomberg, 3/2/2009]

Entity Tags: Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, Christopher Whalen, Charles Rangel, Alwaleed bin Talal, AIG (American International Group, Inc.), Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Vikram Pandit, US Department of the Treasury, Citigroup, Richard Ramsden, Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s, Michael Holland, Institutional Risk Analytics, Scott Sprinzen, US Federal Reserve

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

The World Bank predicts a 2.9 percent contraction in the global economy and adds that unemployment and poverty will continue to rise in developing nations in 2009. The revised previous estimate of a 1.7 percent decline causes a slide in US and European stocks and commodities. Three months ago, the World Bank issued a new estimate of 2 percent in 2010. Although the S&P 500 remains up 33 percent from its 12-year low in March, since June 12, the index has fallen 5.1 percent. Last week, the S&P 500 lost 2.6 percent, as a turndown in crude oil wounded fuel producers and Standard & Poor’s rating agency downgraded 18 banks’ credit ratings. Speaking in Paris today, economics professor Nouriel Roubini—who predicted the current financial crisis as early as 2006—says the global economy could suffer another slump due to higher oil prices and increasing budget deficits. “I see the worry of a double whammy” because of energy costs and fiscal burdens, thus increasing the risk of a setback in the economic recovery. He says that oil might rise to $100 a barrel. The increase in the value of the dollar blunted the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment, and sent copper, gasoline and oil prices lower. Amid the resignations of two more board members, bringing the total of departing directors to seven since April, Bank of America stock falls 6.1 percent to $12.41, the bank’s steepest intraday decline since May 15. It is expected that at the end of their two-day meeting on June 24, Federal Reserve officials might announce that the US is showing signs of surfacing from the worst recession in 50 years, although, after their last meeting in April, they announced that the economy would “remain weak for a time.” It is anticipated that central bankers will keep the benchmark interest rate in the range of zero to 0.25 percent. [Bloomberg, 6/22/2009]

Entity Tags: World Bank, Bank of America, Nouriel Roubini, US Federal Reserve, Standard & Poor’s

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

A list of 10 companies that have avoided paying US income taxes is provided by Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who is pushing for legislation that will close the legal tax loopholes that allow large corporations to avoid the bulk of their tax responsibilities. Chicago Sun-Times reporter Lynn Sweet writes, “Some people call the income tax system with generous loopholes for big companies corporate welfare or corporate entitlements.” Sanders’s list, based on returns and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) documents filed in 2009 and earlier, includes:
bullet ExxonMobil. The oil giant made $19 billion in profits in 2009, but paid no federal income taxes, and received a $156 million tax rebate.
bullet Bank of America (BoA). The financial corporation made $4.4 billion in profits in 2009, and received nearly $1 trillion in Federal Reserve and Treasury Department “bailout” funds. The bank received a $1.9 billion tax refund.
bullet General Electric. This multinational conglomerate made $26 billion in profits in the US, and over the last five years has received $4.1 billion in tax refunds.
bullet Chevron. The oil giant made $10 billion in profits in 2009, and received a $19 million refund from the IRS.
bullet Boeing. The defense contractor received a $30 billion contract from the US Department of Defense in 2009 to build 179 airborne tankers, and received a $124 million tax refund.
bullet Valero Energy. This energy corporation, the 25th largest company in the US, garnered $68 billion in sales in 2009, and received $157 million in tax refunds. Over the last three years, Valero has received a $134 million tax break from the oil and gas manufacturing tax deduction.
bullet Goldman Sachs. The financial giant paid only 1.1 percent of its income in taxes in 2008, though it recorded $2.3 billion in profits. It also received nearly $800 billion from the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department.
bullet Citigroup. The financial conglomerate made over $4 billion in profits in 2010, but paid no federal income taxes. It received a $2.5 trillion “bailout” from the Federal Reserve and Treasury.
bullet ConocoPhillips. The oil conglomerate garnered $16 billion in profits from 2007 through 2009, paid no taxes, and received $451 million in tax breaks through the oil and gas manufacturing deduction.
bullet Carnival Cruise Lines. This entertainment giant made over $11 billion in profits between 2006 and 2011, but paid only 1.1 percent of its income in taxes during that period.
In a press release calling for “shared sacrifice,” Sanders writes: “While hard working Americans fill out their income tax returns this tax season, General Electric and other giant profitable corporations are avoiding US taxes altogether.… [T]he wealthiest Americans and most profitable corporations must do their share to help bring down our record-breaking deficit.” Sanders writes that “it is grossly unfair for Congressional Republicans to propose major cuts to Head Start, Pell Grants, the Social Security Administration, nutrition grants for pregnant low-income women, and the Environmental Protection Agency while ignoring the reality that some of the most profitable corporations pay nothing or almost nothing in federal income taxes.” Sanders calls for closing corporate tax loopholes and eliminating the deductions for oil and gas companies. He is also introducing legislation that would impose a 5.4 percent surtax on millionaires that would garner as much as $50 billion a year in tax revenues. Sanders says: “We have a deficit problem. It has to be addressed, but it cannot be addressed on the backs of the sick, the elderly, the poor, young people, the most vulnerable in this country. The wealthiest people and the largest corporations in this country have got to contribute. We’ve got to talk about shared sacrifice.” [Chicago Sun-Times, 3/27/2011]

Entity Tags: Boeing Company, Carnival Cruise Lines, Citigroup, Bernie Sanders, Bank of America, ConocoPhillips, Goldman Sachs, Chevron, Lynn Sweet, Valero Energy Corporation, General Electric, ExxonMobil

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

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