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Context of 'June 2008: Royal Bank of Scotland Warns of Global Stock and Credit Crash'

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The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) predicts “a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyzes the major central banks.” RBS credit strategist Bob Janjuah says, “A very nasty period is soon to be upon us—be prepared.” Bolstering Janjuah’s dire predictions, the RBS bank research team warns that the Wall Street equities index, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as “all the chickens come home to roost” from what the Daily Telegraph describes as “the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets. Such a slide on world [markets] would amount to one of the worst bear markets over the last century.” Janjuah also warned of the credit crisis in 2007. RBS predicts that Wall Street would rally a little in early July before quickly fizzling out. “Globalization was always going to risk putting G7 bankers into a dangerous corner at some point. We have got to that point,” Janjuah says. RBS debt market chief Kit Jukes says Europe will not be immune from the problems: “Economic weakness is spreading and the latest data on consumer demand and confidence are dire.” [Daily Telegraph, 6/19/2008]

Entity Tags: Bob Janjuah, Royal Bank of Scotland, Kit Jukes

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

“The worst economic turmoil since the Great Depression is not a natural phenomenon but a man-made disaster in which we all played a part,” says Guardian City editor Julia Finch, who lists individuals who led the world into its current economic crisis (see June 2008). These individuals include:
bullet Alan Greenspan, US Federal Reserve chairman, 1987-2006: “[B]lamed for allowing the housing bubble to develop as a result of his low interest rates and lack of regulation in mortgage lending. Backed sub-prime lending; urged homebuyers to swap fixed-rate mortgages for variable rate deals, leaving borrowers unable to pay when interest rates rose. Defended the booming derivatives business, which barely existed when he took over the Fed, but which mushroomed from $100tn in 2002 to more than $500tn five years later.”
bullet Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England: “His ambition was that monetary policy decision-making should become ‘boring.’”
bullet Bill Clinton, former US president: “Beefed up the 1977 Community Reinvestment Act to force mortgage lenders to relax their rules to allow more socially disadvantaged borrowers to qualify for home loans. Repealed the 1999 Glass-Steagall Act, prompting the era of the superbank; the year before the repeal, sub-prime loans were just 5 percent of all mortgage lending. By the time the credit crunch blew up it was approaching 30 percent.” [Guardian, 1/26/2009]

Entity Tags: Mervyn King, William Jefferson (“Bill”) Clinton, Alan Greenspan, The Guardian, Julia Finch

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

The European Commission announces that an index of euro-region executive and consumer sentiment has dropped to 65.4 from 67.2. This is a record low and is caused by the global economic crisis. Responding to this and other bad news Jacques Cailloux, chief euro area economist at Royal Bank of Scotland in London, says, “Today’s data has dashed any hope of a tentative stabilization” in the economy. He also predicts a change in policy by the European Central Bank (ECB): “Any sense that the ECB may pause after a March rate cut can be thrown out the window. They will go very low and they will have to start embarking on additional measures.” [Bloomberg, 2/26/2009]

Entity Tags: Royal Bank of Scotland, Jacques Cailloux

Timeline Tags: Global Economic Crises

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