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Profile: High Frequency Economics
High Frequency Economics was a participant or observer in the following events:
According to the US Labor Department, August jobless rates rise to record highs in California and Nevada; 27 other states see a rise in unemployment as well. Unemployment numbers climb to 12.2 percent in California and 13.2 percent in Nevada. With its unemployment rate rising to 15.2 percent in August, Michigan continues to lead all states, with Rhode Island rounding out the top four states with the highest unemployment since data collection began in 1976. Economists predict that the national unemployment rate will reach 10 percent in 2009, an indication that the recovery will not be led by consumers, although the job market is reportedly showing signs of stabilization, and economic growth may resume in the third quarter. States reporting at least 10 percent unemployment fell from 15 to 14 with Indiana’s rate dropping below the threshold. For a fourth consecutive month, joblessness in the District of Columbia exceeded 10 percent as well, rising from 10.6 percent to 11.1 percent. Nationally, unemployment climbed to a 26-year high, to 9.7 percent. According to Steven Cochrane, director of regional economics at Moody’s Economy.com: “There’s still a fair amount of weakness in some of the larger states. State finances are probably going to be among the last of all the various components of the broad economy to turn around.” Since the recession began in December 2007, the US economy has lost 6.9 million jobs. It is the largest national job loss since the Great Depression.
Jobless Benefits Claims - Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics says first-time unemployment claims have to drop by 100,000 to about 432,000 to be steady with company payrolls. He expects a reasonable decline in first-time claims by next spring. Initial claims categorize those filing their first week of unemployment benefits, while continuing claims reflect those filing each week until the end of their 26-week benefit year. Jobless figures generally do not include those who have moved to state or federal extensions, nor do the figures include those whose benefits have ended. [Bloomberg, 9/18/2009; CNN, 9/24/2009]
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